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Welcome 2008

 There’s nothing like the beginning of a New Year for the trend forecasters as they develop “lists” of options and opportunities for the coming year.  Check out what a few of them have on their list for the coming year…

• Faith Popcorn’s BrainReserve Trend Forecast for 2008

• JWT’s List of 80 Things to Watch in 2008

• Highlights from the 2007 Lists – Don’t overlook previous trend projections as it sometimes takes a while for these new versions of the world to take hold

Trend Information for Purchase

(sorry, but these pricing packets are restricted to public and nonprofits only -- consulting companies, please contact Ellen directly)

	Trends: Patterns and Projections Whether you are a department looking for a comprehensive trend section to add to your department’s plan or just in need of a trends update to your existing plans, this is the trend package for you.  You supply us with the zip code information for your community and identify what you perceive as being the most important 3 issues coming your way, i.e. youth development, aging population, need for open space, etc. and we’ll create a concise and referenced trend insert for your planning purposes.	$450
	Trends:  Indepth, Specialized Focus Creating agendas or addressing issues in one specific area, then secure trend tracking information that focuses upon those shifts in patterns and preferences.  Available focus areas include: Sports and Physical Activity Health and Wellness Sense of Community Youth Risk Reduction and Development Niche Interests and Markets	$250

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industries/media/article/eighty-things-watch-2008_418718_15.html

BIG Picture Trends and Predictions

• Americans:  Changes in How We Live, Work, and Play

• Faith Popcorn's Predictions 2007

• Ten Trends for 2007:  NEXT Now:  Trends for the Future

Americans:  Changes in How We Live, Work, and Play

The recent release of the 2007 Statistical Abstract of the United States by the Census Bureau paints not only an eclectic portrait of the American people drawn from the 1,376 tables of numbers, but it also sheds some additional insight into who we are, how we live, and how we have changed over time.  All good information for parks and recreation!

Some of the insight and changes include:

How We’ve Changed

• For the first time, the abstract quantifies same-sex sexual contacts (6 percent of men and 11.2 percent of women say they have had them) and learning disabilities (among population groups, American Indians were most likely to have been told that they have them).

• More Americans were born in 2004 than in any years except 1960 and 1990.

• The national divorce rate, 3.7 divorces per 1,000 people, was the lowest since 1970. Among the states, Nevada still claims the highest divorce rate, which slipped to 6.4 per 1,000 in 2004 from 11.4 per 1,000 in 1990, just ahead of Arkansas’s rate.

• Of the kids entering college as freshmen in 1970, 79% of those surveyed  indicated developing a meaningful philosophy of life was their  primary personal objectives.   By 2005, 75% of entering freshmen  said their primary objective was to be financially very well off.

• In 1970, 33,000 men and 2,000 women earned professional degrees; in 2004, the numbers were 42,000 men and 41,000 women.

• Among graduate students, 27 percent had at least one foreign-born parent.

How We Live

• Floor space in new private one-family homes has expanded to 2,227 square feet in 2005 from 1,905 square feet in 1990.

• Americans produce more solid waste — 4.4 pounds per day, up from 3.7 pounds in 1980.

• More than half of American households owned stocks and mutual funds in 2005. The 91 million individuals in those households had a median age of 51 and a median household income of $65,000.

• There were 278 million debit cards in the U.S. in 2004, with 22.2 billion transactions amounting to more than $1 trillion.

• More than half of families with credit cards (56 percent) “almost always” pay off the balance, 20 percent “sometimes” pay off the balance and another 24 percent “hardly ever” pay off the balance.

• With medical costs rising, more people said they pray for their health than invest in every form of alternative medicine or therapy combined.

Work World

• From 2000 to 2005, the number of manufacturing jobs declined nearly 18 percent.

• During that same five year period, employment in textile mills fell by 42 percent.

• Virtually every job category registered decreased between 2000 and 2005 except pharmaceuticals. 

• The job projected to grow the fastest by 2014 is home health aide.

• As recently as 1980, only 12 percent of doctors were women; by 2004, 27 percent were.

• Active-duty strength for the U.S. armed forces in 2005 included 493,000 in the Army, 354,000 in the Air Force, 363,000 in the Navy and 180,000 Marines. The nearly 1.4 million men and women in uniform compares to 3 million-plus members in 1970.

Free Time

• Americans spent about eight-and-a-half hours a day watching television, using computers, listening to the radio, going to the movies or reading.

• Adolescents and adults now spend, on average, more than 64 days a year watching television, 41 days listening to the radio, and a little over a week using the Internet.

• Among adults, 97 million Internet users sought news online last year, 92 million bought a product, 91 million made a travel reservation, 16 million used a social or professional networking site and 13 million created a blog.

• Time spent with media increased to 3,543 hours last year from 3,340 hours in 2000, and is projected to rise to 3,620 hours in 2010. The time spent within each category varied, with less on broadcast television (down to 679 hours in 2005 from 793 hours in 2000) and on reading in general, and more using the Internet (up to 183 hours from 104 hours) and on cable and satellite television.

• Since 2000 the number of hobby and athletic nonprofit associations has risen while the number of labor unions, fraternities and fan clubs has declined.

• More than 65 million people did volunteer work in 2005, devoting a median of 50 hours a year to religious, educational and other activities. Older Americans (age 65 and over) did the most work averaging 96 hours. 

 Eating and Drinking

• Americans drank more than 23 gallons of bottled water per person in 2004 — about 10 times as much as in 1980.

• Americans consumed more than twice as much high fructose corn syrup per person as in 1980 and remained the fattest inhabitants of the planet.

• Americans are getting fatter, but now drink more bottled water per person than beer.

Predictions for 2007

Some predictions cited in the press release announcing the publication of this document include:

• Adults and teens will spend nearly five months (3,518 hours) next year watching television, surfing the Internet, reading daily newspapers and listening to personal music devices.

• People will spend 65 days in front of the TV.

• 41 days listening to radio .

• little over a week on the Internet in 2007.

• Adults will spend about a week reading a daily newspaper.

• Teens and adults will spend another week listening to recorded music.

• Consumer spending for media is forecasted to be $936.75 per person.

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Faith Popcorn's Predictions 2007

Faith Popcorn, the head of BrainReserve and the individual who first identified cocooning as a trend, continues to provide companies with trend predictions for the future.  The major, over-riding trend she has identified is that of the “New Networked Self” which she believes has been shaped by recent technological advances.  Popcorn describes this new lifestyle as follows:

• more fluid and more connected simultaneously

• with both infinite possibility and extreme intimacy

• moving away from the ego-driven era of hyper-consumption

• moving towards a sense of personal responsibility to understand and engage the whole rather than one’s small part of the world.

The following is a list of her predictions for the coming year of 2007 that support this concept of the “New Networked Self”:

• Identity Flux:  ability of technology to enable us to experiment with different personalities leading to a fluid sense of who we are

• Liquid Brands:  today’s consumers don’t stick with one brand and companies must become more flexible to keep up by focusing upon being the right thing for the right person at the right time

• Virtual Immortality:  people are making friends, having love affairs, etc. for their on-line alter egos experiencing multiple lives and will leave avatars with computerized directions after death

• EnvironMENTAL Movement:  not physical pollution but consumer backlash against the mental pollution caused by over-marketing; current focus against marketing to kids is the beginning of this trend

• Product PLACEment:  consumer concern related to consumption, i.e. how many trees were killed to bring me this product and will result in “enviro-biographies” being attached to products letting consumers make choices

• Brand-Aides:  the lack of government support for social services results in companies making a profit by providing affordable, accessible services to those in need; think walk-in, for profit clinics

• Moral Status Anxiety:  the new global consumer will regard being altruistic as an essential part of self-improvement leaving conspicuous self-indulgence in the dust; check out the vacation focus on volunteerism as an example

• Oldies but Goodies:  we are in the midst of an experience deficit due to the preference for online activities that  create secondary rather than primary experiences; watch for reliance upon older people for actual expertise in raising children, purchasing homes, etc.

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Ten Trends for 2007:  NEXT Now:  Trends for the Future

From two long-time marketing gurus come 10 trends for 2007.  This list was publicized as part of the December 2006 release of their new book, Next Now: Trends for the Future, co- written by Marian Salzman, executive vice president and chief marketing officer JWT, the largest advertising agency in the U.S. and the fourth largest in the world, and co-author Ira Matathia, co-founder of brand consultancy NoFormula.

According to these two experts look for 2007 to bring the following: 

Religion as Marketing Channel.   The past indiscretions associated with religious leaders has done little to slow the “business of religion”.   The role and potential of churches and religion as a critical connection between people and products continues to catch the attention of marketers.   For corporations, churches are and will continue to become just one more distribution channel as church members serve as word-of-mouth promoters for everything from approved books and movies to almost any goods and services. The authors cite the Mach 4 Baptist Church in Lemon Grove, Washington, which counts Hewlett-Packard, Burger King and Gillette among its sponsors.

New Ties that Bind.   How do you define “family” in our ever-changing society?  That definition continues to evolve as 21^st century families can include a child born from donor insemination with unknown and half- siblings scattered across the country.  Singles who are discouraged from the lack of success in finding suitable partners turn to extended families and web sites as a the modern-day version of arranged marriages.  People also seek a form of family replacement by living in niche, like-minded towns such as Ave Maria in Florida, a development that will be based on strict Catholic values.

Eating Well.   Eating stands to become a time consuming art form as grocery shopping becomes more complicated and complex as we look for more information on food packaging.  Decisions about food purchases require more research especially with the recent issues with organic foods and food safety.  Eating as an “art form” grows with access to global  exotic foods and spices appearing in grocery stores everywhere.

America Returns to the Middle.  The most recent midterm elections signaled a strong plea from Americans to return to a more moderate path.  This moderation will influence not only Washington but the world of media and culture as well.  In 2007 we will see the middle ground taking hold beyond Washington, permeating other facets of culture.  Watch for shifts such as "masstige," the marriage of mass and prestige gaining momentum. Products and stores that find a middle ground between Wal-Mart and upscale niche shops will make a comeback.

Go Green.   Environmental responsibility is becoming a prerequisite for corporations, companies will battle to become the greenest in their product or service category. Toyota with its hybrid vehicles resulted in gold-star status for the company. gold-star Some companies will seek to stand out by promoting a particular cause or natural resource. Extra gold stars will go to businesses that help consumers understand environmental issues and offer smart, easy ways to make a difference.

Blurred World of Work.   Technology continues to make jobs more portable and accelerates the demand that Americans always be available for work.  The struggle to compartmentalize our lives and learn how to master constant connectivity will not go away anytime soon.   Work will saturate our homes, blurring the line between on and off time, and the notion of "work hours" and the way in which we work continues to change dramatically.  The counter-trend, Me Time.  The speed and nonstop nature of work will cause people to make a conscious effort to slow down. The authors cite turning off a cell phone during lunch as an example of  "me time."  Hardly, an outright movement!

Loyalty Goes Local.   An overdose of globalization sets the tone for Americans to establish greater loyalty to their own communities. American Idol Ruben Studdard wore  custom-made shirts with the area code of his hometown printed on the back of them.  More people will feel motivated to support local businesses, producers, artists, and community initiatives. As globalization has made the world seem smaller, localization allows Americans to make their hometowns feel bigger and more important.

Single-Minded Ethics.   The focus of charity and charitable acts narrows as celebrities set the tone and direction.  Bono has AIDS.  Angelina Jolie has orphans and Al Gore has global warming.  Americans want to change the world but are coming to recognize that they can’t change everything all at once which will lead to this niche approach.

Unstrategic Alliances.   George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton became best buddies and that led to even more odd couples.  Brooke Shields blessed Tom Cruise.  Britney Spears and Paris Hilton appear as an item.  While the authors suggest that  "unstrategic" may not be entirely accurate as the era of “brand me” leverages more press attention for unlikely and inexplicable partnerships.

This Tube Is MyTube.   Technology is making it easily for anyone and everyone to express themselves as blogs and publicly posted video clips now involve little risk or expense or previous experience required.  It’s even fun.  Due to the “free rein” of these forms of media, individuals now have a greater range and impact for their opinions, an opportunity that was once available to only a select few.

Trends in Sports

While it may seem as if people participate and watch the same old sports all the time.  Nothing could be further from reality.  Have you ever wondered…

• Where are sports headed in the new millennium? 

• Will sports focus on intense competition or mall walking

• What’s in for active, maturing adults? 

• What’s the future of golf?

• Four Future Scenarios for Sports and Physical Activity

• Role of Aging Adults

• 21 Growth Activities for the 45+ Age Groups

• Motivating Factors for Continued Participation

• Golf, A Game in the “rough”

Four Future Scenarios for Sports and Physical Activity

Scenario 1:  Booming Market Economy = Intense Competition as characterized by

• An intense desire for competition would likely carry over from the business world into the sports world. Competing in ultra-marathons and double century bicycle rides becomes popular. Senior and super senior sports participants drive an intensely competitive market for high-quality sporting goods.

• People of all ages walk and run for exercise in every conceivable virtual environment including computerized, web-enabled treadmills, a component of part of in-home health clubs.

• Professional sport team owners flush with cash form senior Major League Baseball, the senior NBA, and the senior NHL, giving Baby Boomers the opportunity to continue watching the sports heroes of their youth.

2^nd Scenario:  Fresh Air and Sunshine includes the following results:

• The federal government addresses America's long-term economic problems with tougher health, safety, environmental protection and energy conservation regulations.

• Increased environmental and health consciousness result in the necessary political support for rejuvenation of old and creation of new public parks and recreational trails where people engage in a variety of outdoor sports and fitness activities.

• Sports and fitness activities that allow people of all ages to enjoy the cleaner environment -- walking, hiking, climbing, bicycle riding, canoeing, kayaking and cross-country skiing -- are among those that become popular.

• Team sports continue to remain popular but become less organized as children play by their own rules instead of in adult micromanaged leagues  and adults begin to play pickup baseball, softball and touch football games and to copy children's games like kickball and dodgeball.

• Times are not so good for professional sports as baby boomers enjoy outdoor activities and become disillusioned with the bad behavior on the part of professional athletes.  Senior professional golf and tennis, however, continue to have enough fans for economic viability.

3^rd Scenario:  The Sports Bar and Home Theater scenario incorporates the following:

• The best of times for professional and top amateur sports.

• The long-term economic problems of the United States are solved through legislation resulting in prosperity that allows people to have a life of passive luxury leisure.

• People enjoy viewing sports events in the luxury of their home media rooms and nicely appointed sports bars; participation is limited to those who  "make the team" in school.

• Because medicine conquers most diseases and universal access to health care becomes available, health concerns no longer motivate people to be fit. Sports competitions for people over 45 become social occasions in the form of corporate golf and hunting outings.

• Senior professional leagues, other than golf,  fail because market research shows that the public prefers to watch young, well-trained athletes on television and the Internet.

4^th Scenario:  Mall Walking, Minor League Baseball and Friday Night Lights include the following projections:

• The U.S. economy becomes weak as a result of failure to resolve long-term economic problems. Chronic federal budget deficits make providing universal access to health care and adequate funding for research on chronic diseases impossible.

• Participation in sports and fitness activities grows more slowly than the population of older people. People lack leisure time for sports and fitness because of the need to work multiple jobs to make ends meet. Walking, bicycling and swimming remain popular especially during periods of unemployment because of their low cost.

• Amateur sports competition other than that among school and college teams sharply declines. Not only is golf's Champions Tour the only senior professional sports league to survive but poor economic conditions cause the demise of women's leagues.

Source:  The Consilience Group, a futurist consulting firm, works with companies, organizations and government entities to find opportunities and meet the challenges of the 21st century.

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Role of Aging Adults in Sports

The report, Global Aging and Sports: The Impact of Aging of the World's Population on the World of Sports, is the second of a series of reports by The Consilience Group on the future of fitness and sports commissioned by SBRnet, a Princeton, New Jersey, sports market research firm.  This report examines how increasingly healthy aging of the world's population in most countries is affecting the world of sports.

Role of Aging Adults

The trends illustrating the influence of healthy aging cited within this report included:

• Life expectancy doubled and healthy senior years increased during the last century changing participation in sports and fitness activities with more changes likely in the future.

• Many professional athletes continue their careers after the traditional retirement age of 40 which likely spurs more people to enjoy amateur sports and fitness activities in mid-life and senior years.

• People know that sports and fitness are related to good health.

• Greater opportunities exist to participate in senior sports leagues i.e. adult and senior leagues baseball and softball leagues, tennis association senior circuit, national and world seniors games, etc.

• Improved technology keeps people in the game longer by making play more enjoyable, i.e. tennis rackets with bigger sweet spots, injury prevention through bicycle helmets and hip and knee pads.

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21 Growth Activities for the 45+ Age Groups

The report indicated that total U.S. participation and participation by Americans over 45 grew in 21 sports and fitness activities since the early 1990s.  Those sports increasing included:  basketball, bowling, mountain and rock climbing, walking, exercise with equipment, running and jogging, working out at a club, tackle football, golf, hiking, hunting with firearms, ice hockey, in-line skating, kayaking/rafting, martial arts, skateboarding, snorkeling, snowboarding, soccer, target shooting with firearms and waterskiing.

Overall Decline Patterns BUT with Increased Participation by 45+

Participation by Americans over 45 grew in another 13 activities while participation by Americans as a whole declined in these activities.  Those activities are badminton, baseball, bicycle riding, canoeing, touch football, ice/figure skating, racquetball, scuba diving, alpine skiing, softball, swimming, table tennis and tennis.

Exercise walking remained the most popular activity for Americans over 45.

Source:  The Consilience Group, a futurist consulting firm, works with companies, organizations and government entities to find opportunities and meet the challenges of the 21st century.

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Motivating Factors for Continued Sports Participation 

The Consilience Group Chairman Ken Harris believes that future participation patterns will depend upon people's continued motivation to participate and the future state of the economy.

Harris cites four main factors determine motivation:

• health (believing and acting on the advice of health authorities to exercise),

• competition (measuring one's efforts against those of others),

• fun (desire to enjoy oneself) and

• public approval (beliefs about the extent to which sports participation is desirable and/or appropriate for older people).

Three conditions, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetes and obesity, and osteoporosis, threaten the ability of older people to participate in sports and fitness; this applies to their caregivers as well.

Naturally, the economy affects participation due to its relationship with adequate health care for an increasingly older population and availability of sufficient discretionary income and leisure time.

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GOLF – A Game in the “rough” 

With apologies to golf fans everywhere for the “title” assigned this information, but it is true that the game of golf has been and continues to be going through a “rough” patch.  The real core of the issue is whether or not the game can make a comeback in today’s world that is quite different than life in the past.

Some stats and facts regarding the game:

• Each year, 3 million people are newcomers to the game of golf.

• Each year, approximately the same number of people drop out of the game

• The total number of rounds played decreased in 2002 and 2003 and haven’t exhibited much in the way of improvement since that time

• Bad News:  Last year for the very first time in the United States, more golf courses closed than were opened.

Even the “Tiger” effect has not been sufficient to produce sufficient gains in the industry.  The industry is currently attempting to regain ground.  Some of the strategies for recovery may be of interest to leisure service providers in a variety of activities.  Strategies include:

• Attract new players to the game with free golf lessons and training for golf pros as to how to make the game more accessible to more people.

• Devise ways to encourage the “core players” to spend more money on golf by purchasing more equipment, playing more rounds, etc.

• Make the game easier to play.  Tennis made changes to accommodate beginners and older players so golf may be able to do so as well.

• Make it faster.  Time is a shrinking commodity.  The goal is to provide a meaningful experience within one or two hours by making changes such as a six-hole loop and time marshals.

• Devise ways to attract and retain women to the game.

Many of these strategies reflect solid marketing principles such as manipulating the marketing mix variables or alter target marketing strategies.  Strategies that could be applied in a multitude of situations.

Source:  The Wall Street Journal, as featured in the Sarasota Herald Tribune, April 8, 2007

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Signs of the Times – Observing the Changes

Competitive Rock Climbing

According to the Outdoor Industry Association, rock climbing is really taking off.   In 2004, more than 3.4 million young people ages 16 to 24 tried the sport on indoor climbing walls and over 50 high schools across the country have created competitive rock climbing teams using both natural and indoor, artificial rock walls.  This development of competitive rock climbing is not without controversy.  There are advocates who fear adding competition to the mix will create an inappropriate mindset for this activity which involves working the whole body, muscles and mind both.

The Front Porch Explosion

With the advent of air conditioning and television, front porches once so common in this country all but disappeared as suburban neighborhoods were build complete with back yards not front porches.  But that’s all beginning to change. The National Association of Home Builders reported that 53% of new homes built this past year in the United States included a front porch.  In fact, construction of new homes with front porches increased 36% between 2001 and 2005. 

The return of front porches to American homes reflects the growing preference for a more small-town sense of community feel.

Source:  USA Today, September 8, 2006

Fishing Makes a Comeback – Especially in the Cities

After almost ten years of decline, fishing is making a comeback according to the 2004 National Wildlife Service report that indicated the number of people holding fishing licenses increased by 500,000 people in this past year.  What makes the new trend in fishing so interesting is the popularity of the activity being pursued not just in remote lakes but right in the middle of cities.

According to survey information commissioned by the Recreational Boating and Fishing Foundation, 72% of all fisher”people” live in urban areas.  The past few decades have included a focus on cleaning up urban rivers and this results in people tossing out their lines in urban spots.  The web site”  www.takemefishing.org includes best urban fishing sites as does a recent issue of Field & Stream magazine.  A good web site for California is www.dfg.ca.gov/oceo/fishcity

Source:  USA Today, September 8, 2006

Goodbye Stuff.  Hello to Experiences!

Every year the National Retail Federation holds an Annual Convention and one of the seminars at this year’s convention was conducted by Pam Danziger, the founder of United Marketing.  Her insights into what people will be looking for in the next few years included the following:

• Spending on experiential purchases has almost double in the last year.

• The big increases in discretionary spending will be experiential and include such things as travel, dining, entertainment, spa, home landscaping, and home services.

• Consumers are looking for “life-changing” experiences.

• Much of the growth in the experiential economy is being driven by aging baby boomers who no longer are interested in acquiring “stuff”.

Privatization of Leisure Time

In response to the information released from the 2007 Statistical Abstract, Robert D. Putnam, a public policy professor at Harvard and author of “Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community had the following to say:

• “The large master trend here is that over the last hundred years, technology has privatized our leisure time,”

• “The distinctive effect of technology has been to enable us to get entertainment and information while remaining entirely alone,”

• “That is from many points of view very efficient. I also think it’s fundamentally bad because the lack of social contact, the social isolation means that we don’t share information and values and outlook that we should.”

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